Aswath Weblog

(Never Fired) Third Stage Rocket

A week back Tom Evslin wrote a post recalling a keynote he gave about 10 years back at VON in Boston. As he recounts it, he predicted at that time that the progress of VoIP could be compared to a three stage rocket: the first stage that will propel VoIP will be arbitrage plays that will bring down regulatory toll booths; the second stage will be characterized by the use of unified network, not just at the physical (“transmission”) layer (which it has been for a long period of time) but even at the network (“routing”) layer; during the third stage we will see innovative new phone services which VoIP would make possible (emphasis added). Tom goes on to say that just as his first two predictions have been proven right, he is wrong in the third one because “the phone system hasn’t become better” (again my emphasis). He further concludes that “the old phone paradigm can’t be incrementally improved in any significant way” and that “POTS won’t be improved; it’ll just be replaced.” I take a slightly different position and let me elaborate on my line of thinking.

To state it briefly, I am of the belief that user experience can be dramatically improved, it can be improved without replacing POTS, without any fear of regulatory obstacles and need for any fancy VoIP providers. To see that we have to stop thinking about phone system. We are given what POTS providers and VoIP providers give us. Depending on them for any advancement is like waiting for the waves to subside. We have to develop a technology that will allow users to circumvent the basic service providers or leverage the basic service so users realize the features they want. This means we have to stop paying attention to the service providers and start focusing on the end devices.

For obvious reasons, I am being cryptic. But the following example will give a hint: In an unrelated podcast, Jeff Pulver quotes a conversation had with a Cablevision executive. Jeff would like to filter a call before his phone rings and wakes him up at night. This executive’s response is that there is not enough demand for such features. This is a typical Bellheaded thinking. A Nethead would allow for a niche feature, in the hope that it gets adopted widely. An easy way to do this is to do realize them at the end device (I am avoiding “phone” advisedly). In Jeff’s case a Caller ID on steroid can intercept the call before ringing the phones. Indeed, Jeff (via Carl Ford) has a term for these devices – Class 6 switches. So the bottom line is we should focus on Class 6 switches and need not abandon POTS.

If you are interested in these Class 6 switches, please feel free to get in touch with me. I will be attending the upcoming VON if you want to have a face-face discussion.